Summary of Hans Rosling’s Presentation on Global
Population at TED in June 2010
In the '60s,
the world population consisted of 3 billion people. One third of this
population lived in the industrialised world with healthy, educated and rich inhabitants
aspiring for luxury goods, such as cars. The other 2 billion living in the developing world had
low comfort, little education, rudimentary health care and limited fulfillment of basic needs.
Since the '60s world population has grown by 4 billion to reach 7 billion. However, the
rate of increase has not been the same in these two worlds. The
industrialised world has progressed with its inhabitants raising their aspirations
and consumption; the size of its population, nonetheless, remained stable. Consequently, the
rise in population has mostly occurred in the developing world; the evolution there
has varied as follows:
-
The
first billion have reached the level of the developed countries in the '60s;
-
Another
3 billion now belong to the category of what is called “emerging economies”,
with increased consumption approaching the level of developed countries;
-
The
remaining 2 billion still belong to the developing world.
The distance separating
the richest from the poorest has thus increased, but more importantly, the number
of those in between has risen. Another aspect is that the emerging world has
been catching up with the western world, with smaller families and increased
child survival. Nevertheless, the poorest 2 billion still have big families and
low child survival.
What can
the world look like in 2050? On one side, with the right kind of investments, emerging economies can adopt the behaviour of developed countries,
such that the former’s population does not rise significantly. On the other side, the developing world will probably double from 2 to 4 billion; it is only
with better child survival that its population can level off. Given
the forecast(ed) rise in population, it will be necessary to have green
technology and consumption. Last but not least, the old West's role will be to serve as the
foundation of this new world.
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